CS2 Case Odds: The Official Numbers Published By Valve
Since the dawn of its release, Counter-Strike 2 has captivated millions of players worldwide with its intense gameplay and competitive atmosphere. However, one aspect of the game that makes it stand out from other titles in the genre is the opening of in-game cases.
These cases can contain valuable weapon skins, stickers, and other cosmetic items that can be sold on the Steam Community Market or third-party markets for real money. As a result, engaging in case openings presents players with the exciting opportunity to potentially earn substantial profits.
The Old Method Of Estimating Case Odds
For years, the community has been left wondering about the odds of receiving certain items from these cases. In fact, Valve didn’t disclose the drop probabilities for items obtained from cases up until 2017. Prior to that, the community relied on observing case opening videos and streams by popular YouTubers and content creators to estimate the chances of receiving rare drops. These sources provided a rough idea of the odds associated with opening cases and the likelihood of obtaining valuable items. However, this lack of official information led to skepticism and fueled conspiracy theories about rigged odds.
China’s Regulations Forced Valve To Publish Case Odds
Fortunately, in a welcome move towards transparency, Valve, the game’s developer, finally released the official numbers on CS2 case odds through an announcement in 2017. This was in accordance with the laws of China’s Ministry of Culture, which had asked all game publishers to publicly reveal loot crates’ content and their relative odds in accordance with Chinese laws.
In an official blog post, Valve outlined the case odds for different rarity tiers in CS2 by stating that each rarity level is 5 times rarer than its subsequent tier. However, they also mentioned that the ratio between the ‘Gold’ drops to that of ‘Covert’ drops was only 2:5. Let’s take a look at everything we can find about CS2 cases by studying the data on the official case odds revealed by Valve.
CS2 Official Weapon Case Odds
Weapon Cases are the containers that contain skins for the various weapons included in CS2. These cases are generally released once every few months by the developers and contain community-created finishes as well as skins designed by Valve themselves.
The Weapon Cases in CS2 contain skins of the following rarities:
- Mil-Spec Grade
- Restricted
- Classified
- Covert
- Exceedingly Rare (Knives, Gloves)
Taking a glance at the official case odds disclosed by Valve, we can come to the following conclusion:
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | Dark Blue | 79.92% | 4 in 5 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 1 in 6 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Exceedingly Rare | Gold | 0.26% | 1 in 385 |
As you can see, your chances to get a knife drop from a Weapon Case are 0.26%, which translates to an average of 1 knife in 385 case openings. Note that is only a probability and you could as well open 1,000 cases without getting a single knife drop.
CS2 Official Souvenir Package Odds
Souvenir Packages contain weapon skins just like the normal Weapon Cases in CS2, but with a number of differences. For starters, Souvenir Packages can only drop during major CS2 tournaments. They can be redeemed using ‘Souvenir Tokens’ that can be purchased directly or by leveling up that tournament’s respective Pick’em Coin. The weapon skins that are found within Souvenir Packages come with exclusive golden tournament stickers already applied. Lastly, no key is needed to open Souvenir Packages, unlike regular cases.
Souvenir Packages in CS2 contain items of the following rarities:
- Consumer Grade
- Industrial Grade
- Mil-Spec Grade
- Restricted
- Classified
- Covert
Note that even though there is no ‘Exceedingly Rare‘ drop that offers knives or gloves, Souvenir Packages contain 6 different rarities instead of just the 5 rarities you get in Weapon Cases. When we apply Valve’s rule that each rarity level is 5 times rarer than the subsequent tier, we can see that the Covert rarity in Souvenir Packages is in fact much rarer than a knife drop from a Weapon Case.
So, let’s take a look at the official case odds to determine the chances of obtaining each rarity:
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Grade | Gray | 80% | 4 in 5 |
| Industrial Grade | Blue | 16% | 1 in 6 |
| Mil-Spec Grade | Dark Blue | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Restricted | Purple | 0.64% | 1 in 156 |
| Classified | Pink | 0.128% | 1 in 781 |
| Covert | Red | 0.0256% | 1 in 3906 |
There you go! The chances of unboxing the legendary Souvenir AWP Dragon Lore, which is a Covert skin that can only be obtained from Souvenir Packages, are 0.0256% or 1 in 3906. You might want to think about that for a moment before starting to open Souvenir Packages.
CS2 Official Sticker Capsule Odds
As you can already guess from the name, Sticker Capsules contain stickers that you can apply to your weapons in CS2. Capsules can generally be purchased directly from the in-game store of CS2, while Tournament Sticker Capsules can only be purchased during major tournaments. Players can also choose to buy Tournament Sticker Capsules from the Steam Community Market.
Sticker Capsules in CS2 contain items of the following rarities:
- High Grade
- Remarkable
- Exotic
- Extraordinary
As you can see, Sticker Capsules only contain 4 different rarities instead of the 5 rarities of a Weapon Case. When we apply the rule that each rarity level is five times rarer than the previous tier, we can see that an ‘Extraordinary‘ drop from a Sticker Capsule is about as rare as a ‘Covert‘ drop from a Weapon Case.
Now let’s study the official case odds to identify the probabilities of obtaining each grade:
| Rarity | Color | Odds | Simplified Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Grade | Dark Blue | 80% | 4 in 5 |
| Remarkable | Purple | 16% | 1 in 6 |
| Exotic | Pink | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Extraordinary | Red | 0.641% | 1 in 156 |
So, on average, you have to open about 156 Sticker Capsules before you get your first ‘Extraordinary‘ drop. Note that there are Sticker Capsules that have a different number of rarities, which changes the odds for each rarity.
Conclusion
This concludes the list of all the CS2 case rarities that you need to know before you dive into the world of case openings in CS2. This information serves as a guideline for players who wish to make informed decisions about opening cases. Following this list, players can assess the risk-reward factor associated with each type of container and decide whether they are willing to invest in it.
It is important to note that the published odds are static and do not change over time. The probabilities remain the same regardless of the number of cases opened or the recent drops experienced by other players. Players looking to check out the detailed odds for case openings can check out the published numbers by Valve.
