What's The Chance To Get A Knife In CS2?
If you’ve opened any CS2 cases in the past, then you’re probably already aware of how fun it can get at times. In fact, when you’re tired of playing the game itself, unboxing cases is perhaps the most exciting thing that you can do in CS2 whether you’re doing it alone or with some friends over a Discord call.
What makes case unboxings so fun in CS2 is the sheer amount of randomness that the cases present. Sure, most of the drops that you get from unboxing cases will likely be worth only a few dollars, but there’s also a chance of you hitting the jackpot and unboxing a rare knife skin with a unique pattern that can potentially be worth thousands of dollars.
If you’re looking to unbox some CS2 cases yourself, you might wonder what exactly are the odds of obtaining a knife from one. It’s definitely better to know the chances of you winning big before you spend all your Steam wallet funds buying those juicy keys for your cases.
Luckily, that’s exactly what we’re looking into today. Without further ado, let’s check out the probability of obtaining a knife in CS2.
Chances of Getting a Knife in CS2
In the past, we’ve seen several members of the CS2 community, including many big YouTubers, go on lengthy case unboxing sessions where they open hundreds of cases in a row to determine the probability of obtaining a knife in CS2. Taking a look at those unboxings can give us a decent idea about what the actual odds of getting a knife are. In the process, we can also try to determine the odds of obtaining the various tiers of items in the game through case unboxings.
One of the best examples we can take here is that of popular CS2 YouTuber and Twitch streamer Anomaly. During a livestream in June 2021, Anomaly conducted a 24-hour case opening livestream where he opened 4,000 CS2 cases with keys worth about $10,000. This gives us a considerable sample size to work with, and we can determine the odds of unboxing a knife pretty accurately by thoroughly studying the case opening stream.
Out of the 4,000 cases that Anomaly opened throughout his stream, he managed to get 12 knives (yellows), 33 reds, 113 pinks, and 624 purples. From these stats, we can come to the following conclusion:
| Rarity | Chances of Obtaining |
|---|---|
| Exceedingly Rare (Yellow - Knife) | 0.3% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.83% |
| Classified (Pink) | 2.83% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.6% |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 80.45% |
Keep in mind though, this is a basic case study with a sample of 4,000 cases. We’ll look at the official numbers from Valve next…
Official CS2 Case Opening Odds Revealed by Valve
Valve was forced to reveal the odds of their cases by China’s Ministry of Culture, who had asked all game publishers to publicly reveal loot crates’ content and their relative odds in accordance with their laws.
Thereafter, Valve disclosed all the odds for their weapon cases through an announcement made in 2017.
Studying Valve’s announcement, we can come to the following conclusion:
| Rarity | Chances of Obtaining |
|---|---|
| Exceedingly Rare (Yellow - Knife) | 0.26% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.2% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% |
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% |
This goes on to show that players have a chance of 0.26% to unbox a knife for each case they open. To put it simply, you’ll roughly get 1 knife for every 385 cases that you unbox, which isn’t that impressive of a number.
This also proves that the community research previously done from unboxing sessions of big YouTubers has been pretty accurate as the actual numbers only differ by small margins. Furthermore, Valve revealed that the probability of obtaining a StatTrak skin when opening cases is precisely 1/10, a number that has also been agreed upon by the CS2 community in the past.
Conclusion
If your intent is to make a profit off opening cases, getting a Purple, Pink, or Red can also do the trick. This means that you roughly have a 19.55% chance of making a profit when opening CS2 cases. However, take the number with a grain of salt since opening Purples can often result in a loss as well.
Generally, players are advised against opening cases in CS2 since the odds are stacked against them. Most of the time, you’d find yourself losing money if you decide to unbox cases in CS2. However, if you’re hunting for a rare knife with a unique pattern or simply looking for the thrills of CS2 case unboxing sessions, you can get started by purchasing some cases from the Steam Community Market right away.
If you’re just looking to get yourself a CS2 knife, purchasing them straight off the Marketplace might be your best bet when it comes to saving some cash. You can check out a variety of third-party marketplaces on our website if you’re looking to get knives at a discounted price, compared to the Steam Community Market.
